New Hampshire primary: GOP nomination down to two people

New Hampshire primary candidates

The race for the GOP nomination is down to two people in the New Hampshire primary. Democratic analyst Ed Espinoza and Travis County GOP chair Matt Mackowiak joined FOX 7 Austin's Mike Warren to discuss.

AUSTIN, Texas - The race for the GOP nomination is down to two people in the New Hampshire primary.

Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley picked up the first early votes. All six voters in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, selected Haley as the Republican candidate over former President Donald Trump. This all happened in the first-of-the-nation primary early Tuesday morning.

Democratic analyst Ed Espinoza and Travis County GOP chair Matt Mackowiak joined FOX 7 Austin's Mike Warren to discuss.

MIKE WARREN: Matt, despite that landslide in Dixville Notch, for Haley, all indications are that Trump is going to take the New Hampshire primary. Do you think he's going to get the nomination?

MATT MACKOWIAK: The nomination. Yes. I mean, I think the odds of that are 90 or 95%. And there's a chance by the time viewers see this, depending on what time it is tonight or soon, I mean, it. It could be over. If Trump wins, I think by more than 10%. This thing is going to happen fast, I believe. I have no doubt Nikki Haley wants to try to give herself a chance to win in South Carolina. She's a native daughter. She was elected governor there twice. She served in the state legislature. But Trump's political organization in South Carolina is very, very, very strong. It includes the governor. It includes Nikki Haley's former lieutenant governor, includes most of the members of the congressional delegation. So I don't know whether she can survive for 3 or 4 weeks unless she has a very close second or even a surprising first. Here's the thing to watch tonight turnout always comes down to turnout. Ed knows that. But I'm told by wired people in New Hampshire that if it's three 2500, 25,000 or less, Trump's going to win big. If it's 350 or more, it's going to be close. And if it's a lot more than that, with independents and Dems coming in, Haley has a slight chance to win. I think Trump will win by more than 10% tonight. But we'll see.

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MIKE WARREN: Ed, what do you think about Nikki Haley's chances tonight?

ED ESPINOZA: Look, I don't think Nikki Haley is going to win in New Hampshire. I don't think that this is her party. This is Donald Trump's Republican Party, and voters flocked to him in these primaries. And that doesn't necessarily mean they're going to flock to him in the general election. But Nikki Haley is probably going to end her campaign after tonight because, like Matt said, she's going to head into South Carolina, and she's never lost an election in South Carolina. So for her to compete, she has to at least break that 40% threshold in New Hampshire tonight to see if she's going to have any kind of a bounce going into South Carolina. But that's going to be really hard for her to do. And, you know, Matt said it's 92 to 95% that Trump gets that wins New Hampshire. I think the odds are better than that, that he wins New Hampshire. I think there are 99.9% that he wins New Hampshire. And Nikki Haley needs a miracle for anything like that to change.

MIKE WARREN: Matt. How long does Nikki Haley last in this race for the nomination?

MATT MACKOWIAK: Yeah. Look, she's saying right now that she wants to win through Super Tuesday. And I think she's hoping that if New Hampshire is close or she wins, she gets an avalanche of money and momentum. And that allows her to maybe compete in Super Tuesday, March 5th, where you'll have 10 or 11 southern states voting, including Texas. I don't think she's going to be hanging on that long. I really don't. And the real risk for her, as if she's on the ballot in South Carolina and she loses there as an active candidate. It limits, her political strength and maybe even her earning power, after this race is over. So you never want to let your client lose their home state if they're running for president. Marco Rubio learned that in Florida, eight years ago. John Kasich learned that in Ohio. The list goes on and on and on. So there's a risk to her if she goes home to South Carolina in the next few weeks and gets beat by Trump and perhaps beaten badly. So I think we're going to know fairly soon, perhaps in the next few days.

MIKE WARREN: Okay. And, I'll give you the last word on Nikki Haley in New Hampshire.

ED ESPINOZA: I think it's all academic at this point. What, Donald Trump is going to win this nomination, whether he wins tonight or some other night, and it's his party. If you are a Republican, Donald Trump is the face and voice of your party right now, and nothing is going to change that. Not even Nikki Haley.

MIKE WARREN: Okay. All right. Well, they still got a vote and they still got to count them. But we are done for now. Ed, Matt, thank you both very much.