June has arrived and so has hurricane season. Will it be an active one or another tranquil one like last year?
The tropical season got off to a quick start. Ana formed into a tropical storm during early May; since then the tropics have been quiet across the Atlantic basin.
The outlook from NOAA shows a 70% chance of a below average season. There could be 6 to 11 named storms with 3 to 6 of them becoming hurricanes.
This happened last year. There were only 8 storms and most of them curved away from the U.S.
Believe or not the warming of the eastern pacific called El Nino will keep the tropical numbers lower for the second straight year.
Because of all the stormy weather over the e. Pacific, the tropical flow in the upper levels increases. This wind shear hinders tropical development over the Atlantic.
El Nino enhances the numbers over the pacific. There is a 70% chance of an above average season. This becomes very important to us in the fall because the remnants of these tropical systems could give us big rain events.
In the fall, storm systems and fronts can sometimes tap into the leftover moisture from the pacific hurricanes causing flood events.
This happened last October and again in September 2010 where the area received 10” to 20" of rain.