First major hurricane forecast of 2026 released. What it says about Texas

SOUTH PADRE ISLAND, Texas - The first major hurricane forecast of 2026 was released Thursday.

Colorado State University researchers outlined their predictions at the National Tropical Weather Conference being hosted on South Padre Island this week.

What we know:

According to CSU, a slightly below-average Atlantic hurricane season is expected. Researchers are forecasting 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). An average season sees about 14 named storms, about seven hurricanes and about three major hurricanes.

What they're saying:

CSU forecasters said that current weak La Niña conditions and a transition to El Niño within the next few months have played a role in the current thinking.

"We anticipate El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving increased levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear," CSU researchers wrote. "We are forecasting a below-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean."

Dig deeper:

According to CSU, there is a 20% chance of a landfalling hurricane along the Gulf Coast, from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, Texas, this season. That’s below the average of 27%.

Phil Klotzback, a senior research scientist at CSU’s Department of Atmospheric Science and lead author of the report, said that the 2026 Atlantic season seems to be following a trajectory similar to the seasons of 2006, 2009, 2015 and 2023.

Out of those seasons, Texas wasn’t hit by a named tropical system in 2006 and 2009. The state was hit by Tropical Storm Bill in 2015 and Tropical Storm Harold in 2023.