The latest poll comparing Gov. Greg Abbott and his Democratic opponent Gina Hinojosa shows the challenger leading by four points.
The poll released by ReconMR and the Siena Research Institute shows Hinojosa leading 49% to 45% a month before early voting begins in Texas. The same poll showed Abbott leading 46% to 45% in July.
Independent voters break for Hinojosa
According to the poll, the lead for Hinojosa comes from independent voters who are increasingly moving toward the Democrat.
What they're saying:
"The movement over the last three months is largely seen by looking at independent voters who now favor Hinojosa by 38 points, 65-27%, up from 13 points, 49-36%, in July," ReconMR Senior Research Analyst Lindsey Hendren said.
Local perspective:
The poll shows Hinojosa with large leads in Austin, DFW and San Antonio, while Abbott leads in more rural areas of the state.
However, despite leading the poll, Hendren said voters did not think Hinojosa would win the election.
"When asked who they think will win the election for governor, 62% say Abbott. Nearly a third of voters who say they’ll vote for Hinojosa think Abbott will ultimately win the election," Hendren said.
Voters feel both candidates are qualified
Big picture view:
Voters said they felt both candidates were qualified to be Texas' next governor, with more voters saying Abbott (56%) was qualified compared to Hinojosa (53%).
Voters were also split on who would better manage the most important issues facing Texans:
- Making prices more affordable: Hinojosa 51%, Abbott 44%
- Managing water supply: Hinojosa 49%, Abbott 43%
- Managing construction of data centers: Hinojosa 45%, Abbott 42%
- Securing U.S.-Mexico border: Abbott 53%, Hinojosa 39%
- Keeping Texans safe: Abbott 49%, Hinojosa 44%
Texans also feel like both candidates are in touch with Texas values.
Talarico stretches lead to 6 points in Senate race
By the numbers:
The poll also asked voters to weigh in on the U.S. Senate race between Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Compared to the same poll in July, Talarico has extended his lead by two points, up to six, 49% to 43%.
Similar to the governor race, a shift in independent voters can at least be partially attributed to the lead.
"This movement can also be seen by looking at independent voters, who now favor Talarico by 40 points, 64–24%, up from 23 points, 53–30% in July," Hendren said.
The poll was conducted Sept. 8–11 and surveyed 614 likely Texas voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4.3%.
Others races remain close
According to ReconMR, the race for attorney general and lieutenant governor remain close as well:
- Texas attorney general: Republican Mayes Middleton leads Democrat Nathan Johnson, 45% to 44%
- Lt. Gov.: Democrat Vikki Goodwin leads Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, 47% to 46%
The Source: Information in this article comes from a Sept. 17 ReconMR poll of 614 likely Texas voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4.3%.