2026 Election: Texas Senate candidates claim momentum despite conflicting polls
Close race for U.S. Senate in Texas
The new and conflicting polling numbers come as candidates are about to close out the first week of early voting.
TEXAS - The new and conflicting polling numbers come as candidates are about to close out the first week of early voting.
In the Senate race, both campaigns are claiming their bus tours are providing them with momentum.
The backstory:
James Talarico in Wednesday’s poll from the Cook Political Report has a 5-point lead on Attorney General Ken Paxton. But that lead for the Round Rock democrat doesn’t exist in the FOX News poll. In it, the two senate candidates are tied at 49 percent among likely voters.
PREVIOUS COVERAGE: Texas Senate race tight as Election Day nears
A new Fox News poll shows Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico tied at 49% in Texas' U.S. Senate race, as the candidates continue to disagree over a potential debate. FOX 7 Austin's Julieanna Jackson has details.
"On Nov. 3, we are going to do something extraordinary. We are going to do something historic. We are going to shock the nation. To shock the world," said Talarico Thursday during a bus tour stop.
Both candidates urged supporters, who have voted early, to stay engaged.
"So, I want every single person in the room to vote early and spend the next 10 days, 12 days, getting everyone out to the polls, every one of your friends. We can win. We will win if our people show up," said Ken Paxton at a rally in Brownsville.
Dig deeper:
The FOX News poll shows Talarico is slightly winning the battle to get out the party base.
On Thursday’s Battleground Texas show, the poll numbers were discussed along with Dial’s interview with TCU political science professor Keith Gaddie. It was noted how nearly 3 in 10 republican voters, who do not identify themselves with the MAGA movement, plan to cross-party lines and vote for Talarico.
Dial asked Griddle how critical that path was for a Talarico victory.
PREVIOUS COVERAGE: What this early voting surge means for election results
The big run to the polls continued Tuesday after early voting kicked off with a rush on Monday, Oct. 19.
"It is his best path. I mean, no Democrat has won statewide in Texas in three decades. And that means you've got a poll from Republican voters for a Democrat to win," said Griddle.
As early voting wraps up its first week, there have been several attempts to make early outcome predictions. Griddle was asked about that.
"I think you ought to look at these as just being the best guess at what might happen. It's a close race, it's a closed race, you can go one way or the other. What polls do is they do tell you why people make the choices they make, but we rarely get to that point. So, we keep reporting on the horse race, but we really ought to step back from it and ask why. So your observation about non-mega Republicans, that's incredibly valuable polling. It tells us where Talarico has to go to get his vote," said Griddle.
Big picture view:
The FOX News poll also indicates Paxton is mending fences with some women voters, while Talarico has lost some support from women.
Talarico still holds a big lead with Hispanic voters.
The Source: Information from James Talarico, Ken Paxton, TCU political science professor Keith Gaddie, the Battleground Texas show and reporting by FOX 7 Austin's Rudy Koski