2026 Election: What does this early voting surge mean for results?

TEXAS - The big run to the polls continued Tuesday after early voting kicked off with a rush on Monday, Oct. 19.

By the numbers:

Travis County had a record-breaking day Monday for the first day of early voting, with more than 41,000 in-person voters. 

Day two of early voting was another busy day in the Austin metro. Around noon, a few locations in Travis County had wait times exceeding 50 minutes.

In Williamson County, the rush was not as big, but it was steady, especially in population centers like Taylor, Round Rock and Leander.

Harris County led the state for having the most day one early voting ballots, and smashed its own midterm record, with more than 104,000 ballots. 

Montgomery and Fort Bend Counties also reported strong early in-person participation. Day one in Dallas County saw more than 73,000 voters.

What they're saying:

On Battleground Texas, Rice University political analyst Mark Jones warned it's too soon to reach any hard conclusions about the early numbers.

"What you have is what's clear from polling is a group of Democratic voters who are chomping at the bit to vote. They pretty vehemently oppose Donald Trump. They want to support Democratic candidates up and down the ballot. And they couldn't wait to get out and vote this cycle. What tends to happen, though, is that we're probably seeing a cannibalization of later early voting, from in these first couple of days and that we'll see it begin to taper off as we get towards the end of this week and early next week before picking up towards the end of the early voting period," said Jones.

Maintaining the current rate of voter surge, into next week, is doubtful, according to Jones.

"We can also see a cannibalization of all voting in the early vote where simply fewer people end up voting on election day. We saw that in the primary period. So much of the vote occurred early that on election day, it was a real drop-off from what people might have been expecting, and we didn't see the ultra-record turnout that we were expecting, especially on the Democratic side," said Jones.

"The suburbs have been the Texas Republican firewall, which, when combined with their decades of utter dominance in rural Texas, assured continued GOP hegemony. Is there a difference in this cycle? I think there is, and it lies in the depth of Republican support in the suburbs, which has receded to shallow status in a Texas where more blue-leaning folks have migrated outward from inner cities for access to better schools, public safety, and affordable homeownership. Whether that gradual influx is enough to weaken the firewall substantially is a question we won't be able to fully answer for another 14 days," said Greg Groogan with FOX26.

President Trump returns to Texas

What's next:

President Trump will return to Texas this time next week. Steven Dial with FOX 4 expects the message from Trump will go directly to the GOP base, and it probably will not cause a new surge of democrats to the polls.

"I think both parties are dug in now. And yeah, if they get some people to come over to their side, great. And especially on the Talarico side, they want people to come over to the side. But I think it's all about turning out the base," said Dial.

The best total vote for a midterm, statewide, was 53 % in 2018, according to the Texas Secretary of State office. The top presidential year total election turnout happened in 2020 with 66.7%.

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