Texas Primary: New poll, survey shows shake up at polls

AUSTIN, Texas - A survey of those who voted early in the Texas primary elections shows a big surge at the polls. This includes a big influx of independent voters.

The survey is a red flag, and this new poll is a real head turner, flipping the top two races, upside down.

What they're saying:

The early voting count has democrats turning out more for their primary races than republicans. The FOX 7 Battleground Texas segment looked at the survey from Tavern Research. 

The data indicated independents and the undecided are growing into a new type of swing vote, and right now, that voter block is leaning toward democrats.

"I would say our research pretty clearly shows that the Republican messaging is less successful than we see the Democratic messaging with these swing voters. Our research was designed to really kind of compare the Democratic candidates versus each other and the Republican candidates versus each other, but what we're seeing here is in both cases is the Democratic candidate with this group of swing voters is winning after they're after these voters hear their messaging and the Republican messaging," said Jake Martin with Tavern Research.

Many analysts say the midterms are a referendum on President Trump. Martin was asked if the Tavern Survey indicates that belief will continue into the summer, the fall and into the General Election.

"I think so. I think what we see nationally is a lot of indication that that'll be the case, that as we get into summer, into the fall, it's harder to kind of move off of that narrative and those attitudes that voters have," said Martin.

By the numbers:

UT Tyler provided another poll indicating that heads are turning. The new poll shows John Cornyn now ahead of Ken Paxton and Wesley Hunt.

• 41% Cornyn
• 35% Paxton
• 15% Hunt

The survey also showed a smaller undecided count. In the Democratic Senate race, the UT Tyler poll has Jasmine Crockett up big on James Talarico.

• 55% Crockett
• 37% Talarico

The UT Tyler poll follows a survey released by the Talarico campaign. That previous poll had Talarico with a slight lead. 

Dig deeper:

A deep dive into the data provided a regional breakdown on support. For Talarico’s support, those in the poll came from a Central Texas blue bubble. 

Jasmine Crockett got big numbers from people in the Dallas and Houston metros, as well as South Texas and rural east Texas. 

The big regional surprise in the GOP Senate Primary involved Ken Paxton. The analysis showed a large block of support along the south Texas border. That may reflect his past legal fights with the Biden administration regarding border security.