Texas U.S. Senate race: New poll shows voter discontent, raising hopes of write-in candidates

AUSTIN, Texas - A new poll shows the race for the U.S. Senate in Texas remains close, but that poll also shows there is growing discontent with both leading candidates.

New poll released in Talarico vs Paxton race

The backstory:

The official ballot will have three names on it for the Senate: Libertarian Ted Brown, Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico.

According to a new "ReconMR" poll of likely voters, democratic challenger James Talarico holds a four-point lead over republican Ken Paxton. 

The poll shows Talarico at 48% and Paxton at 44%. Researchers say the race remains close because both candidates are holding onto their core bases, though independent voters currently favor Talarico. 

Interview Jade Simmons, U.S. Senate independent candidate

What they're saying:

But there are also four write-in candidates who are in play for the independent vote: Avery Ayers, Bradford Hall, Zul Mohamed and Jade Simmons. 

Simmons spoke to FOX 7 and dismissed the long-shot label.

"49% of Texans identify as independent and many used to be red, used to blue. They're feeling politically homeless and the independent option allows us to solve problems for the largest number of Texans possible," said Simmons.

Jade Simmons, and the other write-in candidates, have reason to be optimistic. The ReconMR poll also indicates voters may be looking for an alternative candidate. On the Battleground Texas show on Monday, there was a discussion about the favorability ratings for the top two contenders. Both have negative opinions that now exceed 40%.

"We're also putting people in office who are dedicated to serving one part of the nation. This is the biggest way for us to be sitting ducks for the enemies that are watching on. So, I believe that I'm standing in the gap so that you have a senator who's not so far up the president's agenda that they can't see straight where Texas is concerned. I'm also standing for those who are big humanitarians. They believe in social justice, but they also feel like some of their ideology is being dragged to extremes that they didn't sign up for. And so again, the independent. We're not mushy in the middle. We definitely have beliefs and stances that are strong, but we also have the flexibility to want to serve more Texans than ever before," said Simmons.

All four write-in Senate candidates are certified by the Texas Secretary of State's office, so their votes will be counted. The political math, according to Simmons, supports a November surprise.

"What I believe is in a three-way race, especially in a four-way race. One candidate doesn't have to take home 50 or 60 percent of the vote. We only need 3.4 million people to say we're not choosing red or blue, we're doing something new. So we're not the long shot people like to think we are," said Simmons.

Dig deeper:

The possibility of a write-in victory would not only be a surprise for Greg Groogran with FOX 26. It would take supernatural intervention.

"The only way this happens is if one of these write-in folks somehow finds Aladdin's lamp and is granted a wish from a mythical genie," said Groogan. 

Simmons shrugged off the doubters and was not afraid to address the concept of political compromise.

"Let's take data centers. For instance, you'll have one side tell you, oh, it's all rainbows and butterflies. It's all about economic advantage. They're not lying completely. Texas has seen an economic gain because of data centers. The other side will tell you to go out and protest. Tell them you don't want AI here when data centers are already here. 140 centers are here, 230 to 250 are being built. And the Texans are not at the table setting the terms. So, it's not compromising all the time. It's, are we at the table deciding what the AI economy will look like for Texans? Are we demanding that these companies that come in use closed loop systems with UV ray protection to make sure that they are able to use wastewater instead of consuming drinking water? Are we requiring partnerships between data centers and local workers? Are we training them for free, giving them industry-level certifications? Are we partnering with local community colleges so that the kids who are graduating there end up being the people running the data centers in the communities they love and serve? So that's not so much about compromise. It's making sure that we're in the room and not being used as political pawns in a way that's not going to serve us," said Simmons.

Big picture view:

There is no doubt many undecided voters are having trouble picking between two front-line candidates. SMU political Analyst Mark Jones, however, does not think that discontent translates into the demise of the current two-party election stranglehold.

"There is certainly unhappiness with the status quo, but that doesn't mean that there's fertile terrain for a new third party or third-party movement," said Jones.

If political lightning strikes, Steven Dial with FOX 4, thinks the perfect political storm will be for the Democrats.

"But this is the best storm that Democrats have in Texas. Let's be honest, the winds are swirling in their favor. It's just a matter of whether they can do what they haven't done for about 30 years, and that's winning a statewide race," said Dial. 

Write-in candidates in Travis County

Big picture view:

There have been some notable past uncertified write-in candidates in Travis County. 

According to a report by the Texas Tribune, the names include Willie Nelson, Mickey Mouse, Jesus Christ and artist-activist Vermin Supreme. There have been two cases of write-in Senate wins. Alaskan Senator Lisa Murkowski in 2010 and South Carolina’s Strom Thurmond in 1954. On the House side, there have been about eight successful congressional write-ins.