Ken Paxton (left) and James Talarico (Getty Images)
The latest poll from The Texas Politics Project shows an extremely close race between Attorney General Ken Paxton and state Rep. James Talarico for U.S. Senate.
The latest numbers released Monday show Paxton with a 1% lead over Talarico, 43% to 42%. Three percent of those polled said they would support Libertarian candidate Ted Brown, while 3% said they would support "someone else." Ten percent said they haven't thought enough to make an opinion.
The poll was conducted June 5–12 among 1,200 self-reported registered voters and has a margin of error of +/- 2.83%.
Can Paxton or Talarico pull voters from the other side?
A majority of voters from each candidate's respective party said they would support their party's candidate. Republican voters have overwhelmingly coalesced behind Paxton, with 84% of Republican voters polled saying they would support him if the election was today. In Texas Politics Project's April poll, only 63% of Republican said they would support Paxton in the November election.
A slightly higher proportion of Democrats, 88%, said they would support Talarico in November.
So, where are the rest of the voters landing?
Well, 5% of Republicans said they would support Talarico, while 2% would support Brown. Two percent said they would support someone else and 7% of Republicans haven't formed an opinion yet.
On the Democrat side, 1% said they would support Paxton, while 3% would support Brown. Two percent said they were supporting someone else and 6% haven't formed an opinion.
Independent voters overwhelmingly support Talarico, with 40% backing the Democrat compared to 12% for Paxton. Seven percent of independents support Brown, while 8% said someone else. A large portion, 34%, of independent voters said they haven't formed an opinion.
Republicans hold leads in other statewide races
The poll also asked voters who they preferred in statewide races for governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general.
In all three races, the Republican candidate held a single-digit lead over their Democratic opponent, but were further ahead compared to the U.S. Senate race.5-
Gov. Greg Abbott had a seven-point lead over Gina Hinojosa, 47%—40%.
Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick also had a seven-point lead over Democrat Vikki Goodwin, 43%-36% with 16% of voters having not formed an opinion.
In the race for attorney general, Republican Mayes Middleton only leads Democrat Nathan Johnson by five points, 41%-36%
The Source: Information in this article comes from a Texas Politics Project poll of 1,200 self-reported registered voters conducted June 5-12, 2026, with a margin of error of +/- 2.83%.