Texas Senate GOP primary 2026: Higher favorability among Republicans for Paxton, data shows

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Looking at the GOP Texas Senate primary race

Primary election day is a month away, so FOX 7 Austin's Angela Shen is taking a closer look at the Republican primary for U.S. between John Cornyn, Ken Paxton and Wesley Hunt.

Primary Election Day is coming up on March 3. In the Republican primary, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is running against incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn.

Data from the Texas Politics Project at UT Austin shows that among Republicans in 2025, Paxton has a higher favorability rating than Cornyn. 

However, if you look at overall voters, both candidates score the highest in the "very unfavorable" category. 

RELATED: Texas voting guide: What to know ahead of the 2026 primary election

What they're saying:

James Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project, says both candidates have the advantage of being well-known names in Texas politics with lots of campaign money. 

"The upside is people know who they are. The downside is there are a lot of people that don't really like them that much," he said.

Henson says Paxton is trying to appeal to far-right voters, who are more likely to turn out for the primary election than more moderate voters.

"Both the governor and the lieutenant governor are running for reelection. If you want to move up, this Senate seat was the most apparent option, and it made a certain amount of sense that Attorney General Paxton would be interested in this," he said.

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Tight GOP Primary in Texas Senate as race heats up

John Cornyn faces high-profile primary challenges from Ken Paxton and Wesley Hunt, while Democrats Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico compete for their party's nomination in the tightening 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race.

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A third candidate, Congressman Wesley Hunt, is also running for the Senate seat.

"If you're Wesley Hunt, you have the obstacle that you're nowhere near as well-known. The challenge there is to be able to introduce yourself as an alternative. That might be appealing to those who are going to be inclined to vote Republican but might have reservations about one candidate or the other," Henson said.

The Federal Election Commission shows that for 2025, Paxton raised $5.3 million, Cornyn raised $4.3 million, and Hunt raised $1.8 million. 

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Texas Senate race heats up

We are less than a month away from the start of early voting for the March Primary. One of the hottest races involves the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate.

While Henson says it's unlikely Hunt wins altogether, he could make it harder for the other two candidates to get the majority of votes.

"The level of support for Hunt coupled with the level of skepticism and the sort of lack of enthusiasm for the other two candidates is just enough probably for Hunt to drive this race into a runoff," he said.

What's next:

If no candidate gets more than 50 percent of votes, the top two will go to a runoff election in May.

Early voting starts on Feb. 17. 

FOX 7 Austin reached out to Paxton multiple times for an interview, but he hasn't responded. An interview with Cornyn will air on Tuesday.

The Source: Information in this report comes from the Texas Politics Project, the Federal Election Commission, and an interview by FOX 7 Austin's Angela Shen

ElectionTexas PoliticsTexasUT AustinKen PaxtonJohn Cornyn