Harris leads Democrats; Vance tops GOP in 2028 primary front-runner poll

With several weeks to go before the 2026 midterms, some eyes have turned away from this year’s contests and toward the 2028 presidential election. While U.S. voters are still two years away from deciding who their next commander in chief will be, a new poll shows which potential candidates may have a head start, should they decide to run.

Big picture view:

Unsurprisingly, the candidates who already built large national profiles and whose names were on the ballot during the 2024 presidential campaign are the ones atop the respective lists for both Republicans and Democrats, according to a FocalData poll. 

RELATED: Americans think Trump prioritizes his wealth more than helping US, poll finds

Democratic Presidential Frontrunners

By the numbers:

The Democrats’ standard-bearer in the last election, former Vice President Kamala Harris, holds the top slot among those who told pollsters they would be more likely to vote in a Democratic primary. The onetime California senator claimed the support of nearly a third (32%) of those respondents, putting her well in front of the governor of her home state, Gavin Newsom.

Republican Presidential Frontrunners

On the GOP side, Harris’ successor and current Vice President JD Vance commands an even greater share of respondents who were eyeing the Republican contest, with nearly four in 10 people asked saying they would support the Ohioan. That puts Vance ahead of two Floridians and one-time presidential candidates in their own right, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Trump Approval Rating

What's next:

While there is still a long, long way to go before the first ballot is cast for the next president, other poll results may offer a sneak preview of the election that is just around the corner. 

President Donald Trump has told supporters to "pretend I am on the ballot," but the poll found that a large portion of the population disapproves of the job he is doing. According to the poll, the president’s approval rating stood at 33%, while 58% of respondents disapproved of his performance. 

When asked to choose between a generic candidate from each party, the generic Democrat held a six-point edge (47%-41%) among all respondents. As the likelihood someone would vote increased, so did the Democratic advantage. 

Among registered voters the gap remained six points, but Democrats gained two points to reach 49% of that subset. When narrowed again to likely voters, the party crosses the halfway mark to 52% and leads the generic Republican by eight points.

 

PoliticsJD Vance