Philippe could impact New England this weekend with heavy rain, wind after dramatic shift in forecast track

Tropical Storm Philippe is continuing to raise eyebrows after a dramatic shift in the forecast track overnight that now includes New England and Atlantic Canada, where impacts from the storm are expected to begin this weekend.

A large portion of Maine is now in Philippe’s forecast cone as the storm moves northward through the western Atlantic Ocean over the next several days.

The FOX Forecast Center says that Philippe is also expected to interact with a strong area of low pressure over New England when it approaches, which could create a complicated and challenging forecast.


Where is Tropical Storm Philippe?


Tropical Storm Philippe's stats. (FOX Weather)

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says Tropical Storm Philippe remains disorganized as it continues to bring rain and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Philippe has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph with some higher gusts and is located about 715 miles south of Bermuda.

An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain is expected for the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, bringing the storm total to 6 to 12 inches. In addition, portions of northeastern and southeastern Puerto Rico could also see an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain, bringing the storm total there to 2 to 4 inches.

The rain is expected to impact Bermuda starting Thursday, and between 3 and 6 inches is expected through Friday.

Where is Tropical Storm Philippe going?


Tropical Storm Philippe's cone. (FOX Weather)

Tropical Storm Philippe is moving to the north-northwest at 9 mph, and that motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn to the north at a faster speed is expected to begin Wednesday night and will likely continue into the weekend.

On the forecast track, Tropical Storm Philippe will approach Bermuda on Thursday night and Friday.


A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Bermuda as Tropical Storm Philippe approaches the island.

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for Bermuda on Wednesday morning, which means tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible in the watch area within 48 hours.

Possible New England impacts from Tropical Storm Philippe


New England is expected to have another weekend washout thanks to Tropical Storm Philippe. (FOX Weather)

Tropical Storm Philippe will continue to move off to the north as an area of high pressure over the eastern half of the U.S. moves off the coast and into the Atlantic Ocean.

The FOX Forecast Center says as the high-pressure system moves east, it will help steer Philippe toward Bermuda. As that is occurring, the fall storm system moving across the U.S. will eventually reach New England by the end of the week, and that’s where it will interact with Philippe.


The forecast track for Tropical Storm Philippe. (FOX Weather)

Tropical Storm Philippe is expected to impact Bermuda by Thursday night and Friday but could then begin bending back to the west by Friday night.

That will continue on Saturday, according to the FOX Forecast Center, with heavy rain falling well ahead of the main circulation of the storm.


The flash flood threat in the Northeast and New England on Saturday, October 7, and Sunday, October 8, 2023. (FOX Weather)

The rain associated with Philippe will be converging with the rain associated with the fall storm, and as of now, it appears as though Saturday and Sunday will be the timing for the highest flash flooding threat in the Northeast and New England.

Philippe is expected to continue north on Sunday, with the heaviest rain battering portions of Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont.


The forecast rain totals in the Northeast and New England through Sunday, October 8. (FOX Weather)

Most areas of the Northeast and New England will likely see 1 to 2 inches of rain with locally higher amounts from Philippe, but parts of northern New England will likely see higher totals.

Portions of Maine, Vermont, northern New York state and the White Mountains in New Hampshire could pick up 2 to 3 inches with some locally higher amounts.


The exclusive FOX Model max wind gust forecast through Sunday, October 8. (FOX Weather)

The FOX Forecast Center says that while millions of Americans in the Northeast and New England woke up Wednesday to the news that Philippe may impact them, the storm will likely not be a fully tropical cyclone when it approaches New England.

Philippe is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on Saturday as it becomes absorbed into the low-pressure system associated with the fall storm system in the eastern U.S.

Because of that, impacts are expected well outside the forecast cone, and those threats include flash flooding, power outages and dangerous surf along the coast.

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