FOX 7 Discussion: 1 week into Russia's invasion of Ukraine
AUSTIN, Texas - Russia’s war on Ukraine is now in its ninth day. Russian forces have shelled Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, sparking a fire there that was extinguished overnight. The U.N. nuclear watchdog says there was no sign Friday of radiation leaks.
FOX 7 Austin's Rebecca Thomas spoke to Jody Ferguson, a former senior advisor at the Pentagon who also lived in Moscow, about the situation unfolding in Ukraine.
REBECCA: The Russian Invasion of Ukraine continues this week. Joining us tonight to discuss the situation is Jody Ferguson, a former senior adviser at the Pentagon who actually lived in Moscow for two years. Jody thanks for being here.
JODY: It's my pleasure Rebecca. Good evening.
REBECCA: What do you make of Russia shelling one of the largest nuclear plants in Europe? I understand it's non operational right now but it still has nuclear fuel.
JODY: That's correct it is in fact the largest nuclear plant in Europe. It's breaking news obviously, but from my understanding, the good news on that of course is it's not an RBEMK reactor, which was the type of reactor which was at Chernobyl. So it is a little bit more stable of a reactor, I understand that graphite is used as a moderator for the RBEMK reactors, whereas on this one it's water. But I think it's very disconcerting news, in fact I was supposed to travel to Europe next week and now I'm concerned now that there might be some sort of radiological disaster occurring there at the moment. I'm hopeful that both sides can come to their senses and come to a ceasefire at least in that region, which is the Southeastern region of Ukraine, close to the Donetsk and ___ regions.
Russia, Ukraine invasion: Could we be headed to another Cold War?
From 1947-1991, geopolitical tensions between the United States, the Soviet Union, and their respective allies were described as the Cold War. As Russia continues its attacks on Ukraine, could we be headed there again? William Inboden, Junior Chair at Clements Center for National Security at UT-Austin, shares his thoughts.
REBECCA: World leaders including President Biden continue to add sanction against Russia. Do you think they're working, or is it too soon to tell?
JODY: I think they're working, although it is early of course in the sanction regime. However there are already indications that the Russian government and especially the Russian people are feeling the duress. We have friends that we've spoken to in Moscow and they've been telling us of problems of getting cash out of the banks, large surcharges every time they use a credit card. Gas prom, which is listed on the london stock exchange, lost 97% of its value. It was worth 47 billion dollars in market capitalization last week. This week, it's worth roughly 250 million dollars. Furthermore, Boeing has announced that once the leases on all of its airplanes in Russia are up, it's going to ask for the airplanes back. Tankers which would pick up Russian oil are starting to decide not to go to Russia because they can't get insured if they go there. So the sanctions are working now, and in the longer run they're going to get even harsher for the people of Russia.
REBECCA: Today, French President Emmanuel Macron held a lengthy meeting with Vladimir Putin, and he says the worst is yet to come. What do you make of that?
JODY: I think that in some respects what we've been seeing in terms of the success of the Ukrainians in defying Russians and battling them back, is probably going to be fleeting. I think eventually the Russians are going to start to bring more and more power to bear, and we've already started to see that with the shelling of the cities. So I think Macron was probably referring to that. In my own mind, my big concern is that Russians might start launching heavier cyber attacks on not just Western Europe but also North America as we step up our aide towards Ukraine.
REBECCA: Ukraine is not a part of NATO, so troops likely will not be going into that country, but how likely is it that Putin will stop with Ukraine? Or do you see him going after other former Soviet countries that are now members of NATO?
JODY: I think - it's hard to tell what Vladimir Putin thinking about what he's going to do. I think for now he's looking at Ukraine as his primary goal. I would think that if he were successful in taking Ukraine, our next biggest perhaps point of weakness for NATO and for the United States would be something known as the Suwalki gap, which is a territory between Poland and the Baltic republics, who are in NATO, which links them together. But on the other side of them on the Baltic Sea is an independent piece of Russian territory called Kaliningrad. And we could see a mirror of what happened in 1939 with the so called danzig corridor when the German state of East Prussia was separated from the German main area, and Hitler used that as a pretext to unite them together. So that would be I think the next biggest target. Whether or not that's in the mindset of the Russian leadership, I can't say for sure, but I think for now Ukraine is the primary goal. He's looking not just at Eastern portion of Ukraine, I think he's looking to take over the entire country and install a puppet regime.
REBECCA: Jody Ferguson thank you so much for sharing your time and expertise with us tonight.
JODY: My pleasure Rebecca.
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