South Texas primaries show signs of new political turbulence for Dems, Republicans

Texas Primary: First week of early voting wraps up

As early voting wraps up its first week, there are new questions about how immigration enforcement is factoring into voter turnout. And, if that issue will continue after the Primary votes are counted.

AUSTIN, Texas - As early voting wraps up its first week, there are new questions about how immigration enforcement is factoring into voter turnout and if that issue continues after the primary votes are counted. 

Solid blue seats in south Texas are now being challenged by Republicans, despite recent concerns regarding immigration enforcement. 

A recent article from the Texas Tribune focused on the Democrat and Republican primary nominations for State House District 41. There have been accusations that some candidates are fake party members, essentially political Trojan horses.

What they're saying:

FOX 7 Austin's Rudy Koski spoke to Brian Smith with St. Edwards University about how voters are having to navigate through the new political turbulence.

BRIAN SMITH: "Yes, the waters are swirling because there's a lot of things at play. First, it's a mid-year election, so you're not going to have presidential coattails. Also, it is an open seat election. There's no incumbent running, so anybody can be the front-runner. And third, it a competitive seat in an area that's been reliably democratic. So you take those three things together and you get a lot of candidates running all across the political spectrum who vary greatly in message and experience."

RUDY KOSKI: "House District 41, that race really seems to sum it all up, where you have Republicans say, you're not a Republican, and Democrats saying you're really not a Democrat in each primary race. Have you ever seen anything like this, or is this completely new just for South Texas?"

BRIAN SMITH: "It's not completely new, because it's something that's worked in the past. In primary elections, your party votes, so one of the easiest ways to get votes is by accusing a member of your party, who may be just as conservative or liberal as you are, depending on the party, that they're not conservative enough or liberal enough. So you understand, if I stake out that position to the extreme, then I can attack anybody closer to the center. There are no enemies on my left or right."

RUDY KOSKI: "There's been a lot of talk that the possibility that because of the controversy in regard to immigration enforcement that Trump and Republicans have lost some ground in South Texas, but that may not be the case. It just may be people are trying to navigate these new waters, right?"

BRIAN SMITH: "Right, we know immigration is going to be a big issue in South Texas. It always is. We know the president is going to be big issue, but a lot of what we're seeing nationwide isn't what the immigration efforts are focusing on. They're focusing on bigger cities in the Northeast. So a lot of things going on down in the valley are status quo with immigration being a top issue, but not really escalating like it has nationwide."

RUDY KOSKI: "Will the primaries in South Texas be somewhat of a canary in the mine shaft?"

BRIAN SMITH: "It will be, especially when we look at the fall race, because right now we're seeing no incumbents. So in South Texas, both parties have open seats. So if one party gets a lot more turnout than the other, meaning if the Democrats really get a lot of votes out and the Republicans don't in the primaries, that might signal that this race is not as competitive as we think it is."

Dig deeper:

The economy was also a big factor in the 2024 election. 

Political analysts are anticipating that it will re-emerge after the primary votes are counted and the November ballot is set. 

In South Texas that issue is linked to immigration. Early voting numbers show a surge of voting by Democrats so far, not only in South Texas but in areas typically identified as Republican strongholds.