Solar will pass coal in power generation in Texas in 2026

Published May 13, 2026 11:39 AM CDT

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Annual electric power generated from solar will surpass that of coal in Texas for the first time in 2026, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's latest Short-Term Energy Outlook.

By the numbers:

Utility-scale solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas grid in 2026, compared to 60 billion kilowatt-hours from coal.

Solar generation is expected to climb to 99 billion kilowatt-hours in 2027. Coal power generation is expected to increase at a much lower rate, up to 66 billion kilowatt-hours.

Big picture view:

While solar power generation is increasing in the Lone Star State, it still pales in comparison to the energy produced by natural gas, which accounts for around 44% of all electricity generation in the state.

Still, solar's footprint is increasing and has climbed from 4% of all energy generated in Texas in 2021 to 12% in 2025. Coal's share of energy generation has dropped from 19% to 13% over the same time period.

The Source: Information in this article comes from the U.S. Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook.

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