AUSTIN, Texas - A storm system will bring a two-day severe weather threat to central Texas, followed by continued high fire danger Wednesday afternoon and later.
The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a VERY LOW risk for severe weather for the whole Austin area except Fayette County on Monday and a SLIGHT risk for severe weather on Tuesday for all but Mason County and western Gillespie County where there is a VERY LOW risk.
Storms may fire off along a dry line stretched approximately along US 281 in the mid-afternoon and early evening on Monday. The window for storm formation is 2-6 p.m. and should stay in the Hill Country. Storms will die down as the sun sets and will not be active overnight.
Storms will again try to form along the dry line stretched near Hwy 281 mid-afternoon between 2-6 p.m on Tuesday. If any storms do form, they will approach the I-35 corridor between 5-8 p.m. All storms will either die down or exit the area by 9pm.
If one or two storms can get going they'll have the potential to produce large to very large hail and gusty winds. The tornado threat is nearly zero both days though ever so slightly higher on Tuesday as wind shear will be slightly stronger.
Both Monday and Tuesday the severe threat will be significantly hampered by a very strong cap. Monday's cap will be the stronger of the two days and therefore fewer storms are expected.
Additionally, there is weak forcing – just a dry line, no cold front – and low upper level energy to assist in severe storm development. Tuesday will see slightly more favorable conditions for storms to form, but still suffer from the strong cap. That said, any storm that can break the cap will likely produce large to very large hail and strong, damaging winds.
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