Austin area under slight risk for severe weather Monday evening into Tuesday

The Storm Predication Center has placed part of the Austin area under a slight risk for severe weather. Strong thunderstorms could form late Monday evening and through the overnight hours into the very early morning hours of Tuesday. Strong winds and hail will be the primary threat, and there is a non-zero but very low risk for a tornado.

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A developing upper level system is moving across the desert Southwest and will move into West Texas Monday afternoon bringing with it strong south winds and much higher humidity. The higher humidity will fuel thunderstorms well to the north of the Austin area and will try to get some going in central Texas. 

A strong cap will work against any thunderstorms forming late in the evening, limiting the potential for widespread severe weather. This means that the greatest threat for storms to form will be held to the northern fringe counties such as Llano, Burnet and Williamson counties. 

The upper level low will pass well north of Austin and the strongest storms will stay well to the north of our area. By 2 a.m., the dry line should push through our area bringing calmer conditions to the remainder of the night.

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Overall this is a low-end event that will result in the majority seeing some showers and some lightning but most not seeing particularly strong storms. The biggest questions remain around the strength of the cap and whether, if at all, the storms can break the cap. If one or two of them can break through in the afternoon large hail will be possible given the ample instability and mid level shear. 

As the next several model runs come in, the severe potential will become much clearer. Given model trends, the SLIGHT RISK may be trimmed back even farther north, potentially entirely out of the Austin area.  Download the FOX 7 Weather App and keep tabs on the weather forecasts by streaming Good Day and FOX 7 Austin News live online. 

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