Texas governor’s race: Abbott widens lead over Hinojosa in new poll

AUSTIN, Texas - A new poll has found that while the Texas governor’s race is much tighter than similar races in the past, the gap between the candidates has widened.

What's new:

The poll by UT/Texas Politics Project found that of the 1,200 registered voters who were surveyed, 45% of them prefer Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, the Republican Incumbent. His opponent, Democratic State Rep. Gina Hinojosa, was picked by 40% of those polled. About 10% said they hadn’t thought about it enough to have an opinion.

What they're saying:

"Just two months out from the election, Gov. Greg Abbott’s 5-point polling lead over State Representative Gina Hinojosa provides yet another suggestion of the surprisingly challenging election environment for Republicans in Texas heading towards November," authors of the results report wrote. "Abbott’s margins of victory over Democrats in his previous gubernatorial elections were 10.9% in 2022, 12.3% in 2018, and 20.4% in 2014."

Where do independents stand?

Dig deeper:

Independents, who might very well decide this race, preferred Hinojosa to Abbott 37% to 17%. Nearly 40% of independents in the poll said they hadn’t thought enough about the race to have an opinion.

Rural vs. suburban

Local perspective:

Abbott’s support in the suburbs has slipped since June’s sampling, according to the poll, with Hinojosa holding a four-point edge. 

Rural voters far preferred Abbott to Hinojosa, with the Republican incumbent getting 61% of respondents to the Democrat’s 23%.

Abbott and Hinojosa are statistically even in urban areas of the state.

When do I vote?

What you can do:

Early voting for the 2026 Midterms in Texas begins Oct. 19. Election Day is Nov. 3. Check our Texas Election Guide for more information.

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