2026 Election: New poll shows movement in several top Texas races
November midterms poll numbers
A new poll shows the race for the U.S. Senate between Ken Paxton and James Talarico is now essentially tied. But the poll also shows a growing problem for one of the candidates within their own party
AUSTIN, Texas - A new poll shows the race for the U.S. Senate between Ken Paxton and James Talarico is now essentially tied. But the poll also shows a growing problem for one of the candidates within their own party.
Ken Paxton vs James Talarico
What they're saying:
Our Battleground Texas discussion Tuesday afternoon looked into how that unity goal by the GOP is playing out. The insight is provided by a new survey from Texas Southern's Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center.
Steven Dial, Greg Groogan and FOX 7’s Rudy Koski spoke to Mark Jones, one of the lead researchers with the TSU Poll, about how the U.S. Senate race essentially is now a dead heat. Republican Ken Paxton has apparently closed a big gap with Democrat James Talarico, that was reported earlier this month by another polling service. The bad news for Paxton is, the family feud that has fractured the Texas GOP has not been resolved.
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According to the TSU poll, more than a quarter of those who identified themselves as moderate republicans said they plan to "break ranks" and vote for the democrat. And Talarico also continues to poll well with independents. Greg Groogan asked Jones how Team Blue, with limited financial ammo, closes any gaps with Republicans.
"I think you just have to keep pressing for all the earned or free media that you can get. Try to fundraise based on the idea that you could potentially win," said Jones.
The key for Democrats is to stay as close as possible, according to Jones, and to hope that a blue wave sweeping across the country will be enough to put them over the top on Nov. 3.
Is there a fractured Texas GOP?
What they're saying:
As for Republicans, a ballot box rebound is more complicated. Steven Dail asked Jones about the long-term fallout from a fractured Texas GOP.
"I think the key issue for Republicans is that they're going to have to give those Republicans who right now are supporting Talarico or on the fence a reason to vote for Ken Paxton, even though they don't like Ken Paxton. And that's why we're going to see probably over $100 million spent between now and November 3, bringing Talarico down in terms of favorability and raising concerns about how he would vote on the Senate floor," said Jones.
That media blitz, Jones is predicting, will certainly carry over into the race for Governor. The TSU poll has incumbent republican Greg Abbott holding a four-point advantage over democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa — 49 to 45 percent.
The poll also noted strong name recognition for Abbott and 21 percent of likely voters said they still don't know enough about Hinojosa to form an opinion.
Texas 3026 poll
By the numbers:
That's a lot of political wiggle room which was noted in the new Texas 2036 poll.
1 in 6 who took part in the survey described themselves as unaffiliated and undecided. The poll also indicated Texas voters overall are showing a greater willingness to split their ballots on election day.
- 38% expect to vote for a mix of candidates
- 24% said they are currently unsure who they will vote for
Big picture view:
The poll also looked down ballot at some statewide battles like the comptroller's race and gave a look at if a controversial, racist social media post shook things up.
The post was made by Railroad Commission candidate Bo French after the UT/Ohio State game. In the Comptroller's race, Republican Don Huffines has an almost 10-point lead on Democrat Sarah Eckhardt. But the TSU poll shows big movement on the railroad.
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The survey was done a few days after the post by French and shows democrat Jon Rosenthal only two points behind. The net favorability for French has also swung by 15 points into negative territory.
The Source: Information from Battleground Texas reporting, a Texas Southern's Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center poll, Mark Jones, one of the lead researchers with the TSU Poll, the Texas 2036 poll, previous coverage and reporting by FOX 7 Austin's Rudy Koski