Official 2026 hurricane forecast released with Atlantic season just days away

FILE – It's Hurricane Preparedness Week and Rachael Gauthier from the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety

It's Hurricane Preparedness Week and Rachael Gauthier from the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety shares more about how homeowners can prepare for strong winds and severe storms during hurricane season.

HOUSTON - NOAA has released its official hurricane forecast for 2026, with the start of the Atlantic season 10 days away.

What we know:

According to NOAA, a below-normal season is expected for the Atlantic. NOAA’s outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs June 1 to November 30, predicts a 35% chance of a near-normal season, a 10% chance of an above-normal season, and a 55% chance of a below-normal season.

The agency is forecasting a total of 8-14 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 3-6 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1-3 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.

An average season sees about 14 named storms, about seven hurricanes and about three major hurricanes.

(FOX Local)

What they're saying:

The Atlantic season is expected to be below-normal due to competing factors. El Niño is expected to develop and intensify during the hurricane season, while ocean temperatures in the Atlantic are expected to be slightly warmer than normal and trade winds are likely weaker than average. El Niño conditions tend to support less tropical storms and hurricanes, while warmer ocean temperatures and low winds support a more active year.

"Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold," said NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. "That is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season."

NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity based on large-scale weather and climate patterns. It does not indicate where or when any storms may affect land as that is determined by short-term and variable weather patterns is not a landfall forecast. 

(FOX Local)

Dig deeper:

While the NOAA forecast doesn’t indicate the likelihood of a landfalling hurricane, forecasters at Colorado State University included percentages in their forecast in April.

According to CSU, there is a 20% chance of a landfalling hurricane along the Gulf Coast, from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, Texas, this season. That’s below the average of 27%.

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Phil Klotzback, a senior research scientist at CSU’s Department of Atmospheric Science and lead author of the report, said that the 2026 Atlantic season seems to be following a trajectory similar to the seasons of 2006, 2009, 2015 and 2023.

Out of those seasons, Texas wasn’t hit by a named tropical system in 2006 and 2009. The state was hit by Tropical Storm Bill in 2015 and Tropical Storm Harold in 2023.