Texas Senate race remains a dead heat as early voting approaches
Democrat James Talarico (left) and Republican Ken Paxton (right) are vying for the U.S. Senate in Texas. (FOX Local)
Texas' top candidates for the U.S. Senate again find themselves in a virtual tie with less than a week before early voting begins.
Talarico leads Paxton in latest poll, but remains within margin of error
By the numbers:
Democrat James Talarico has a three-point lead over Republican Ken Paxton in the latest poll from the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin, 50%-47%, while 1% said they preferred Libertarian candidate Ted Brown and 2% preferred "someone else." The lead is within the poll's 3.34% margin of error.
Talarico's lead comes as more voters support him within his own party compared to Paxton and a larger group of independent voters are breaking for the Democrat.
Ninety-eight percent of Democrat likely voters, 69% of independent likely voters and 4% of Republican likely voters said they were supporting Talarico, while 92% of Republican likely voters, 11% of independent likely voters and 1% of Democrat likely voters said they were supporting Paxton.
Where is the support for Talarico, Paxton coming from?
Beyond party support, Talarico is leading Paxton, 54% to 41% among Latino voters, 54% to 41% among urban voters, 54% to 44% among suburban voters and 56% to 40% among women voters.
Paxton leads Talarico among rural voters 66% to 30% and among male voters 54% to 42%.
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Who leads 2026 Texas Senate race? Paxton vs. Talarico poll tracker
Polls have shown the hotly contested U.S. Senate race in Texas is in a dead heat.
Democrats lead in other statewide races
The Texas Politics Project also surveyed voters about other statewide races and found voters said they were more likely to support the Democrat in the race.
- In the race for governor, Democrat Gina Hinojosa had a one-point lead over Gov. Greg Abbott, 49% to 48%.
- Democrat Vikki Goodwin led Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, 49% to 46%, in the race for lieutenant governor.
- Democrat Nathan Johnson was the preferred choice of 48% of voters, compared to 47% for Republican Mayes Middleton in the attorney general's race.
- Democrat Jon Rosenthal (47%) held a one-point lead over Republican Bo French (47%) in the Texas Railroad Commission race.
Where Republicans are leading
Republicans were the preferred choice of voters in the race for comptroller of public accounts and generic Congressional and state legislative races.
- Republican Don Huffines leads Democrat Sarah Eckhardt by one-point, 47% to 46%
- Voters said they would rather vote for a Republican (47%) than a Democrat (42%) in non-specific U.S. House contests.
- Voters said 48% to 43% that they would prefer a Republican over a Democrat in the Texas Legislature.
The Texas Politics Project surveyed 861 likely voters between Sept. 25, 2026, and Oct. 5, 2026, with a margin of error of 3.34 percentage points.
The Source: Information in this article comes from a Texas Politics Project that surveyed 861 likely voters between Sept. 25, 2026, and Oct. 5, 2026, with a margin of error of 3.34 percentage points.