Talarico leads Paxton, Cornyn in new US Senate race poll

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PRAIRIE VIEW, TEXAS - APRIL 22: Rep. James Talarico speaks to students and community members at Prairie View A&M University on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. (Jason Fochtman/Houston Chronicle via Getty Images)

Democratic state Rep. James Talarico is leading both of his potential opponents in the U.S. Senate race, according to a new poll.

The poll from Texas Public Opinion Research shows Talarico with a three percentage point lead over Sen. John Cornyn, 44%-41%. Talarico leads Attorney General Ken Paxton by a wider, five percentage point margin, 46%-41%, according to the poll.

Cornyn and Paxton will meet in a runoff election on May 26 to determine the Republican nominee.

Talarico leads among Black, Latino and college-educated voters

Talarico's lead over Cornyn comes from Black voters (+51), Latino voters (+32) and college-educated voters (+10). Eleven percent remain undecided.

The same coalition is pushing the Democrat's five-point lead over Paxton: Black voters (+56), Latino voters (+27) and college-educated voters (+14). Nine percent of voters are undecided.

Independent voters are also breaking for Talarico. Fifty-one percent of independents said they back Talarico over Cornyn (29%), while 53% said they backed Talarico over Paxton (28%).

The poll found more voters viewed Talarico favorably (41%) than unfavorably (34%), with others saying they were unsure. By comparison, Cornyn and Paxton were viewed unfavorably in the poll, with Cornyn being viewed unfavorably by 48% of those polled and Paxton being viewed unfavorably by 46% of those polled, a net unfavorability of -15 for Cornyn and -10 for Paxton.

No Democrat has won a statewide election race in Texas since 1994.

John Cornyn (left) and Ken Paxton (Getty Images)

Polling shows Cornyn and Paxton neck-and-neck in runoff race

Most polls show Cornyn and Paxton are neck-and-neck in the May 26 runoff election.

A recent poll by coefficient.org shows Cornyn with a one-point lead over Paxton, well within the poll's 3% margin of error. Thirteen percent of voters in that poll said they were undecided about the race.

Other races polled

TPOR also polled voters on the race for governor and the race for attorney general.

In the governor's race, Gov. Greg Abbott is leading Democrat Gina Hinojosa by five points, 48% to 43%. Hinojosa is leading among independent voters by 13 points and moderate voters by 32 points. She also leads among Latino voters. Despite the support for Hinojosa, Abbott has stronger support among Latinos and independents compared to Cornyn and Paxton.

The poll also asked voters who they would pick in the attorney general's race. Voters said they were more likely to support the Republican nominee in November, 45% to 39%. Both Democrats and Republicans will decide a nominee in the race in the May 26 runoff.

On the Democrat side, state Sen. Nathan Johnson is facing former Galveston mayor Joe Jaworski, while Republicans will choose between state Sen. Mayes Middleton and U.S. Rep. Chip Roy.