Trump endorsement wouldn't be enough to bridge Cornyn’s gap with Paxton, new data shows
DALLAS - A new poll shows Attorney General Ken Paxton with a large lead over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn ahead of the May Senate runoff between the two that even an endorsement from President Donald Trump would not help overcome.
Conducted by Texas Public Opinion Research, the poll asked 781 Republican voters who they supported in the upcoming runoff, with 49% saying they supported Paxton with 41% supporting Cornyn and another 11% saying they were still undecided in the race.
Paxton leads Cornyn in early poll
Paxton's eight-point lead includes many voters who broke for Rep. Wesley Hunt in the primary. Nearly half of Hunt voters (48%) said they were switching their vote to Paxton for the runoff. Just 31% said they would now vote for Cornyn.
Paxton's lead also comes from young voters, men and voters with no college degree.
More than half of the men polled said they planned to cast their vote for Paxton (53%), with just 39% supporting Cornyn. Women were split between the candidates, with 43% breaking for Paxton and 42% for Cornyn.
Voters under the age of 65 also said they were turning out for Paxton. The attorney general polled much higher among voters aged 18–34 (61% to 39%), 35–39 (58% to 34%) and 50–64 (57%-32%), while trailing among voters aged 65 and older (48% for Cornyn, 40% for Paxton).
How does Trump shift the Senate race in Texas?
After Paxton and Cornyn advanced to a runoff last week, Trump finally weighed in on the race, saying he would make an endorsement "soon."
According to the Texas Public Opinion Research poll, that endorsement doesn't close the gap for Cornyn.
Based on those polled, if Trump endorsed Paxton, then 58% of voters said they would vote for Paxton, while just 32% would vote for Cornyn.
Cornyn would get a boost from the president's endorsement and draw the race closer, but Paxton would still have the advantage 44% to 43% with 13% of voters remaining undecided.
Trump has urged the candidate that doesn't get the endorsement to drop out of the race before May.
Paxton said he would consider dropping out of the U.S. Senate runoff election if Congress passes the SAVE America Act, which would require proof of citizenship to vote.
The primary runoff election is set for May 26.
The Source: Information in this article comes from a poll conducted by Texas Public Opinion Research between March 7–8, 2026. Information on Trump's endorsement announcement comes from previous FOX Local reporting.